It’s only May, and already farms and ranchlands across much of the United States have experienced the kind of hot, dry conditions that don’t usually come until later in summer. About 61 percent of the continental United States is in some stage of drought as of May 5, especially concentrated in the Southeast, High Plains and Western regions. The 2026 drought has already contributed to an intense early wildfire season and very low surface and shallow groundwater levels in many parts of the country. Now it threatens to collide with the ongoing impacts of the Trump administration’s misguided tariffs and dangerous, illegal war against Iran (which has driven up the costs of fertilizers and energy), to further increase food prices and hurt people’s livelihoods and pocketbooks.
Faced with multi-year drought conditions, worsened by climate change, hard-hit communities—especially people in rural communities—need policymakers in Congress to pay attention and act now, before things get much worse.
Status of drought in the United States
The latest map from the US Drought Monitor shows abnormally dry conditions across a wide swath of the country. NOAA’s Palmer Drought Severity Index, which uses temperature and precipitation data to provide a longer-term view on soil moisture and drought conditions, hit an all-time March low for the contiguous US, with records dating back to 1895.
Nearly all (99 percent) of the Southeast is in drought, with nearly 62 percent in severe to exceptional drought. According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina have experienced record dry conditions for September 2025-March 2026, with records dating back to 1895. Water levels are well below normal. And the region is experiencing an outbreak of spring wildfires, with the latest fire outlook continuing to signal high fire risk in the region through at least July.
Drought conditions in Florida are especially dire—with nearly 82 percent of the state in extreme or exceptional drought. NASA satellite data show that this is already taking a severe toll on groundwater supplies, vital for drinking water and farming (see map below). This has already had a negative impact on the state’s citrus crop (which was also affected by an early season freeze). Dry conditions are even leaving alligators with no place to go!
The Southern Plains and the Southwest US have been experiencing an extended drought over six years now, so this year’s hot, dry conditions are compounding those challenges. It’s possible that a strong El Niño, which is looking increasingly likely later this summer, could help alleviate the drought conditions in some parts of the country—but that is far from certain and there is a huge water deficit to make up. The Great Plains state of Nebraska, with 88 percent of the state in drought, experienced catastrophic record-breaking spring wildfires affecting cattle country.
In the western US, nearly 60 percent of Colorado and Utah are in extreme or exceptional drought. A May snowstorm this week is bringing more snow than Colorado has seen all winter and could help a little but is unlikely to make a big dent in the drought conditions. A multi-decade challenge of managing (and mismanaging!) water in the Colorado River basin through extended drought conditions has also come to a head with the current drought—a fact that even the climate-denying Department of the Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has been forced to acknowledge.
Snowpack is exceptionally low in the Sierra Nevada, a snow drought that is a major threat to future water supplies for as many as 30 million Californians. The early season March heatwave, which would have been “virtually impossible without human-induced climate change” according to a World Weather Attribution study, further exacerbated the situation.
Impact of 2026 drought on crops
With the spring planting season well underway, the drought is already having an impact on many crops. The latest data show that many major agricultural crops are at risk because of being in drought-stricken areas. The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA’s) latest weekly weather and crop bulletin notes that “Rain continued to bypass the central and southern High Plains, leaving rangeland, pastures, and winter wheat in desperate need of moisture…”
As the maps below show, 70 percent of the winter wheat crop, 98 percent of the cotton crop and 61 percent of the cattle are in areas experiencing drought currently.
Drought and food prices
If drought conditions continue to persist, they could reduce crop yields and force ranchers to cull more of their cattle. That will put livelihoods at risk this year and beyond, especially for small and midsize farmers and ranchers who are already struggling. Lower agricultural output will have a knock-on effect on food prices—which have already been adversely affected by tariffs and the impacts of the war against Iran.
Already, US beef prices—which have been rising since last year—are projected to rise further as ranchers struggle to keep their cattle fed and watered. With prolonged drought, this can change their decisions on herd sizes over multiple years. The drought’s impact on the US spring wheat crop has started to filter into international wheat markets. These impacts are just starting to emerge, but unfortunately, they could get much worse quickly if we don’t get a lot more precipitation as the growing season unfolds.
The 2012 drought has many harsh lessons for what might potentially lie ahead, including impacts on crops, livestock, food, water and power supplies, and hindered navigation on drought-hit waterways (in 2012, water levels on the Mississippi were especially affected).
Preparing for this year’s drought, planning for future conditions
As farmers contend with the drought, the Federal Crop and Livestock Insurance Program, subsidized by taxpayers, will have to step in to provide a backstop. The US Government Accountability Office (GAO) has consistently identified the crop insurance program as an area of high risk for the federal government, and those risks are growing as climate change worsens. In addition to the crop insurance program, over the last year, the USDA has paid out nearly $18 billion in supplemental disaster assistance to farmers and ranchers under the American Relief Act passed by Congress in 2025. Taxpayers may be on the hook for even more if this summer stays hot and dry, as the USDA has extended that program’s application deadline to August.
Unfortunately, climate change is fundamentally altering conditions for US agriculture, creating unprecedented risks and uncertainties for livelihoods of farmers and ranchers. The Climate Toolbox for agriculture is one valuable resource to help understand how climate change will affect the agricultural sector.
Drought can also take a huge toll on health—including mental health—and it’s vital for communities and health professionals to be aware of, and have access to resources to help cope with, these challenges. Given that, it is particularly cruel that the president’s budget proposal for next year would eliminate funding for the USDA’s network of regional Climate Hubs that assist farmers with understanding climate risks and potential resilience strategies.
The impact of drought on water supplies obviously extends to all communities who depend on that water—especially in the Southwest and California, this is an increasingly acute crisis. Maladaptive choices about how we manage water and where development is expanding will put people’s needs on a collision course with dwindling water availability. Often the needs of lower income or less politically powerful communities, Tribal Nations, and agricultural workers are disadvantaged compared with the demands of large agricultural interests and richer communities. As my colleague Amanda Fencl put it: The consequences of the snow drought go beyond hydrologic droughts to water rights as well.
Drought can also affect hydropower resources. The latest forecast from the EIA projects that US hydropower generation will remain 1.8% below the 10-year average because of the snow drought conditions in some states. Desperate measures are being taken to try to restore water levels in Lake Powell sufficiently to maintain hydropower generation, for example. This will be important to keep an eye on as the summer progresses.
Urgent for Congress to act
Congress must take action now, anticipating the harsh effects of the 2026 drought, to help communities cope. That means addressing risks to agriculture, to water supplies, and to livelihoods. It means anticipating continued dangerous wildfire conditions and preparing for them now, before disaster strikes. Most of all, it means standing up to the Trump administration’s destructive actions attacking vital federal agencies like the USDA and its US Forest Service that help prepare and protect people from the impacts of drought and wildfire.
As my colleagues have pointed out, the recent House-passed farm bill would be a failure if enacted, as it does little to address the growing threats of climate change to farmers’ and ranchers’ livelihoods, while fueling unsustainable overproduction of climate-intensive commodity crops and undermining the affordability of healthy food for families.
US consumers are already being buffeted by challenges to the affordability of many necessities—from energy to insurance—and adding food to that list will be especially hard for families with lower incomes. While the nation must invest in resilience measures to address climate-driven drought conditions, we must also sharply cut heat-trapping emissions. A rapid transition from fossil fuels to clean energy is essential—without that, we are dooming future generations to unrelenting megadroughts.
The costly toll of climate change on people and our economy is clear. Policymakers who ignore these facts and continue to pander to the fossil fuel industry are unconscionably putting us all at greater peril.